Today's call
BULLISH, above-average yield, price-softening
1 of 11 regions below-average, 6 above. Critical phase. Heat stress and rain reduce yield and quality.
UK farmer sentiment this week: neutral (-0.04).
Confidence overlay ×0.98, sentiment is neutral on the directional call.
What this means for price
An above-average yield call is historically price-softening: supply is plentiful, storage fills, and prices have tended to ease through autumn. This is an observed historical relationship, not a trade recommendation.
How our yield calls have related to ex-farm price over the years (and why the link is looser than you'd think): yield and price.
Active early-warning signal
crop quality neg signal running 5.6× above its recent baseline (Yorkshire & The Humber), a sentiment-side keyword anomaly. Read alongside the
weather call, not in place of it.
Per-region call
Predicted yield anomaly (t/ha vs trend) and compound stress per DEFRA region. Below-average regions first.
| Region | Call | Yield anomaly | Compound stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| North West & Merseyside | Below average | -0.57 | +1.5 |
| Northern Ireland | n/a | -0.26 | -0.1 |
| South West | n/a | -0.23 | +0.9 |
| Scotland | n/a | -0.14 | -0.3 |
| Wales | n/a | +0.15 | +2.0 |
| North East | Above average | +0.51 | +0.5 |
| Eastern | Above average | +0.59 | -1.0 |
| South East & London | Above average | +0.59 | -0.1 |
| West Midlands | Above average | +0.65 | +1.2 |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | Above average | +0.74 | -0.8 |
| East Midlands | Above average | +0.97 | +0.5 |
How we get here: Methodology · Weather detail · Sentiment pulse · Track record