Today's call
NEUTRAL, regions split, no directional call
5 of 11 regions below-average, 3 above. Crops are being drilled (planted). Weather during this phase determines establishment.
UK farmer sentiment this week: mildly negative (-0.11).
Confidence overlay ×1.00, sentiment is neutral on the directional call.
What this means for price
With regions split, there's no directional price read this week. The historical yield-to-price relationship only bites when the yield call is itself directional.
How our yield calls have related to ex-farm price over the years (and why the link is looser than you'd think): yield and price.
Active early-warning signal
disease pressure running 4.4× above its recent baseline (national), a sentiment-side keyword anomaly. Read alongside the
weather call, not in place of it.
Per-region call
Predicted yield anomaly (t/ha vs trend) and compound stress per DEFRA region. Below-average regions first.
| Region | Call | Yield anomaly | Compound stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| North West & Merseyside | Below average | -1.09 | +2.1 |
| Wales | Below average | -0.68 | +1.7 |
| Northern Ireland | Below average | -0.49 | +0.6 |
| North East | Below average | -0.10 | -0.7 |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | Below average | -0.08 | -0.9 |
| South East & London | n/a | -0.03 | +0.0 |
| Eastern | n/a | +0.02 | -0.3 |
| Scotland | Above average | +0.09 | +0.4 |
| West Midlands | n/a | +0.10 | -0.1 |
| East Midlands | Above average | +0.18 | -0.4 |
| South West | Above average | +0.38 | +0.5 |
How we get here: Methodology · Weather detail · Sentiment pulse · Track record