Today's call
BEARISH, below-average yield, price-supportive
9 of 11 regions below-average, 0 above. Harvest is underway or imminent. Rain causes sprouting and quality loss.
UK farmer sentiment this week: neutral (+0.03).
Confidence overlay ×0.96, sentiment contradicts the directional call.
What this means for price
A below-average yield call is historically price-supportive: less wheat to go around, milling buyers compete, merchants pay up to lock supply, and UK feed wheat futures have tended to firm into harvest. The strength of that pattern depends on how unanimous the regions are.
How our yield calls have related to ex-farm price over the years (and why the link is looser than you'd think): yield and price.
Per-region call
Predicted yield anomaly (t/ha vs trend) and compound stress per DEFRA region. Below-average regions first.
| Region | Call | Yield anomaly | Compound stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yorkshire & The Humber | Below average | -1.51 | +0.3 |
| East Midlands | Below average | -1.45 | +1.8 |
| South East & London | Below average | -1.37 | +0.6 |
| West Midlands | Below average | -1.24 | +3.9 |
| South West | Below average | -1.23 | +3.0 |
| Eastern | Below average | -1.22 | +0.3 |
| Scotland | Below average | -0.83 | -0.5 |
| North East | Below average | -0.46 | +0.2 |
| Northern Ireland | Below average | -0.35 | +0.1 |
| North West & Merseyside | n/a | -0.15 | +2.5 |
| Wales | n/a | +0.15 | +1.8 |
How we get here: Methodology · Weather detail · Sentiment pulse · Track record